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Download Reports.  New Rs 90 crore SSP plant: Orders to be placed by March.   Rs 250 crore investment plan for green field Technical pesticide unit: TOR granted.  Depressing talk-I: "Commodity prices will never recover from the slump".  Depressing talk-II: Saudi Arabia may run into serious trouble.  Depressing talk-III: China has run out of steam and India can't take up its place.   Depressing talk-IV: Why the RBI governor fears Quantitative Easing.  Downlaod Reports.  Business opportunities: Rs 40 crore SSP investments in the offing.  Download Reports.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-I: Without gas based power, India's solar juggernaut will skid off course .  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-II: Is it possible to produce gas based power at $5 cents/bbl?.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-III: Low prices force LNG suppliers into a corner.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-IV: Suppliers will perhaps be happy if variable costs are covered.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-V: Will suppliers agree to lower the price slope?.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-VI: Qatar can sabotage the competition.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-VII: Will domestic operators be left high and dry?.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-VII: Will domestic operators be left high and dry?.  Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-IX: If the power minister can set the ball rolling, so can the fertilizer minister.  Download Reports.  
Download Reports
Feb 11: For reference purposes, the website carries here the following reports:
8Standalone Audited Financial Results of Tata Chemicals Limited  
8Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin [Himachal Pradesh]   
8Q3 FY16 Earnings of DCM Shriram   
8Agricultural Biotechnology and Crop Productivity: A Report   
8National Dialogue on Efficient Nutrient Management for Improving Soil Health [FAI]  
8Standalone Unaudited Financial Results of NFL   
8Quarterly Performance Report of ICL   
8Market Overview of PotashCorp [February 2016]   
Click on Reports for more
New Rs 90 crore SSP plant: Orders to be placed by March
Feb 11: An existing company is still waiting for the environment clearance for its 800 TPD of Single Super Phosphate (SSP) and 800 TPD of Granular SSP (GSSP) plant in India.
The clearance is expected by March and that is when orders will be placed for equipment and services.
8The power requirement is about 900 KW, which will be sourced from State Electricity Board.
8The company also proposes to use 2640 TPA fuel oil for hot air generation and install a 125 KVA DG Set which will be use 15 LPH of High Speed Diesel (HSD).
8The projected investment cost is Rs. 90 crore.
Following are the current highlights:
8Land preparation  activities are done.
8Prefeasibility report is completed
8Term of reference (TOR) have already been approved by the Environment Ministry (MOEF).
8Capital approval is over.
8Contractor selection is underway.
8Speaking to this website, company sources said that expected the environment clearance in March, 2016 and after that orders will be placed for equipment and services.
Click on Details for company and key contact
  Details
 Rs 250 crore investment plan for green field Technical pesticide unit: TOR granted
Feb 11: A new company is planning to set up a green field project Technical Pesticide with capacity 29400 MTPA in India.
8The total project investment cost is around Rs 250 crore.
8The power requirement is about 1000 KVA, which will be sourced from State Electricity Board.
8The company also proposes to install DG Set with capacity 500 KVA each.
8The requirement of water and land is about 1860 KLPD and 106 hectare respectively.
8The fuel requirement is about 500 Litre per hour of  Hish Speed Diesel and natural gas is about 262 Sm3/hr for the Thermic fluid heater with capacity 2 Million Kcal.
Following are the highlights:
8Land preparation is over
8Term of Reference have elicited on 6 February, 2016
8Prefeasibility Report is completed
8Capital approval is underway
8Contractor selection is underway
8Speaking to this website, company sources said that currently they are awaitingenvironment clearance after which purchases of equipment and services will begin.
Click on Report for more and Details:
  Details
Depressing talk-I: "Commodity prices will never recover from the slump"
Feb 11: The rampant decline in commodity prices that started two years ago seems to have finally put an end to the epic boom most commodities experienced during the early part of this century, a research paper argues.
 
8Almost no commodity has escaped the furious price correction and prices are yet to find a floor.
 
8While the current oil price near $30 seems too depressed by this century's standards, it still looks high by 1998 standards, when oil prices could be found at $10.
 
8The current slump is an overreaction, but so was the prior boom, the paper insists.
 
8The last thirty years have been marked by double-digit Chinese growth and artificially low level of interest rates, both of which helped to create a commodities boom that changed the global economy.
 
8But the time for a reversion in policy has come as central banks have run out of easy money options and the commodities market is at risk of fully reverting to its 1990s levels.
 
8The paper then goes on to claim that the fate of commodities lies with how central banks and the Chinese economy behaves, both of which now seem to have limited maneuverability.
 Click on Reports for more
Depressing talk-II: Saudi Arabia may run into serious trouble
Feb 11: The adjustment in supply in the oil markets is not yet complete, which means further price declines and increases in volatility are to be expected in 2016, according to another writer.
 
8The world needs to adapt to a new reality: one where China will no longer lead global growth and where manufacturing is no longer their top priority.
 
8Emerging markets, in particular those used to making a living  from exporting commodities, will need to reposition their economies.
 
8Saudi Arabia will run into difficulties, as they're no longer in control of oil prices; and while they try to bust everyone by keeping production levels unchanged, they're going to burn the astonishing  amount of reserves they have accumulated so far – $100 billion is already gone.
 
8They will start taxing the pop-lation and the 30-year peg of the riyal to the dollar may be at stake.
 
8The new kid in the block seems to be Iran, which is now flexing its muscles after the lifting of US sanctions.
 
8Iran is willing to offload its 150 billion barrels in reserves. It is also planning to pump more oil, riding on the belief that it stands to make money even at low oil prices because its cost of production is under $10/bbl. The Iranian deputy petroleum minister said yesterday in Moscow that its oil industry will remain profitable even if prices drop to $8/bbl
 
8Venezuela meanwhile has already descended into chaos and there is the looming threat of Brazil and Russia going into default.
 
8So the paper reiterates the earlier view that worse is not over yet for the global economy.
 Click on Reports for more
Depressing talk-III: China has run out of steam and India can't take up its place
Feb 11: There is no doubt that China invested heavily in infrastructure capacity to keep their economy growing at two-digit rates.
 
8From $1.2 trillion in 2000, Chinese GDP grew to $3.5 trillion in 2007 and to $10.4 trillion in 2014.
 
8Such spectacular growth could never be the result of productivity improvements alone; it could only be the result of an astonishing credit creation that increased the national debt from $1 trillion in 2000 to $25 trillion in 2014.
 
8The huge growth experienced by China boosted the appetite for commodities, in particular for those that are important inputs in manufacturing, pushing their prices higher and seducing companies around the world to invest heavily in new mines.
 
8But with debt rising from 1x to 3x GDP, one can easily speculate that the current trend is unsustainable.
 
8China has been borrowing too much from its own future and boosting an artificial demand for commodities.
 
8This process now seems to be unwinding.
 
8Everyone is now looking at India to become another China but will India be able to replicate the Chinese success story?
 
8That a question only time will answer.
 Click on Reports for more
Depressing talk-IV: Why the RBI governor fears Quantitative Easing
Feb 11: Why is it that the RBI governor is a firm critic of low interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) policies of western central banks.
 
8This is because he believes that deflation is the new villain of the world economy and QE has diminishing marginal returns. The more you do it, the less it works.
 
8The dramaticand sudden fall in the oil price and concerns that it may not go back up again in the medium term, have triggered deep anxieties that this will be the catalyst for a major global deflation.
 
8The problem occurs when deflation shrinks economies which had already borrowed heavily in he past.
 
8Despite lower interest rates, the shrinkage in their economies due to deflationary impact is so rapid that they are unable to repay their own debts.
 
8A research paper now predicts that Japan -- which is now entering an era of negative interest rates -- will be the first country to default followed by the Euro zone as it runs out of cash.
 
8The paper says that the defaults will prove the Keynesian model right, that there is an apparent asymmery between inflation and deflation. Inflation, he the model says, just effects prices but deflation diminishes both prices and employment. This is because deflation stifles investment and therefore reduces demand.
 
8In a deflationary world, output contracts in both nominal and real terms, but debtors still have to repay debts that were taken out when price levels were higher. For a person or company with no debt, you could argue that, net-net, life continues as before. But for companies that have financed investment by debt, their capacity to repay that debt is enfeebled and what holds good for companies also hold true for economies.
 
8The paper says that the worst is yet to come for the global economy.
 Click on Reports for more
Downlaod Reports
Feb 10: The website carries here the following Reports
 
8Alternative route and rates for movement of fertilizer to northeastern states [DOF]   
 
8Agriculture under uncertain Climate Change predictions: A report   
 
8Hindalco announces Q3 FY 2015-16 Standalone Unaudited Results   
 
8ICL reports Q4 2015 results    
 
8DAP firm on wholesale markets
 
8Accounts of Subsidiary Companies of IPL [2014-15]   
 
8Full report of decontrolled fertilizer sales [February 2016]   
 Click on Reports and also on Tenders and Newsclips for more 
Business opportunities: Rs 40 crore SSP investments in the offing
Feb 10: For reference purposes, the website carries here details of two green field SSP units, with investments of Rs 15 crore and Rs  30 crore respectively.
 
8In one case environment clearance is awaited while in another an environment clearance proposal was accepted by the environment ministry.
 
8In both cases, clearances are awaited before orders are placed.
 
8For those who are interested in the supply of equipment and services, please click on Details for name of the companies and key contacts
 Click on Details for more
  Details
Download Reports
Feb 09: The website carries here the following reports:
 
8Annual Report of Indian Potash Limited [2014-15]   
 
8Fertilizer prices and market analysis: A report   
 
8Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin [Madhya Pradesh]  
 
8Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin [Manipur]   
 
8World Bank Commodities Price Data [February 2016]   
 
8Report of the DirectorIARI  presented at the 54th convocation of IARI   
 
8Full report of urea sales [February 2016]   
 Click on Reports section for more
 Also lick on our Newsclips and Reports sections for more data and information
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-I: Without gas based power, India's solar juggernaut will skid off course
Feb 09: In what is being seen as a shrewd move, power minister Piyush Goyal has asked Australian LNG producers to find a way out of the current slump by setting up LNG based power plants in India.
 
8India's massive solar power expansion -- adding a gigantic 175 GW of solar power capacity over the next 7 years -- has necessitated the need for many gas based stations to support this capacity.
 
8Gas based power plants will have to act as spinning reserve, supplying power when the sun sets and the solar power capacity goes off grid.
 
8Without these peaking power stations it will be impossible for India to be fully exploit the solar power capacity that is currently being set up.
 
8India's commitment to lower emission levels also make it extremely difficult to go ahead with new coal fired capacity at breakneck speed. And in any case coal stations work as base load stations and do not usually cater to peaking power requirements.
 
8So in other words, India's massive solar power expansion will require a concomitant increase in cleaner gas based power.
 
8Without power plants that can be put on the grid at short notice like gas based stations could be, the solar revolution in India will induce a grid collapse every time 175 GW of power is switched off when the sun sets.
 
8The only way out is for stabilizing loads to be brought in quickly in the evening.
 Click on Reports for more
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-II: Is it possible to produce gas based power at $5 cents/bbl?
Feb 09: Goyal is now pushing for Australian LNG producers to wade downstream and set up gas based plants in India.
 
8What the minister is astutely trying to sell is a complete package, where the producer of gas liquefies, transports and then regasifies gas in India to produce power.
 
8Goyal is trying to be smart by trying to induce LNG producers to go down the value chain as they are currently under great strain because of a fear that new Australian LNG capacities may stay under utilized in a scenario where supply is going to exceed demand.
 
8The power minister has in fact gone a step further by insisting that LNG based power be supplied at 5 cents/kwh, at about the same price as the cost of coal fired power.
 
8Goyal also said, while speaking to industry leaders in Australia, that India would be willing to get into long term gas supply arrangement for supply of LNG for power plants provided the price is right.
 
8Accompanying the minister was a senior executive from GAIL who explained that gas pipeline infrastructure was in place in India to support an LNG led increase in power generation. Only about 50% of the total gas pipeline capacity was exploited at the moment, he pointed out.
 
8To take the idea further, an LNG sub-group has now been created under the joint leadership of a joint secretary in the petroleum ministry and a senior Australian official. They will be further supported by an operating team as well as representatives from NTPC, GAIL, Petronet LNG and shipping companies. The sub-group will create a roadmap over the next two months on how Australian LNG companies can participate more proactively in the Indian power sector.
 Click on Reports for more
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-III: Low prices force LNG suppliers into a corner
Feb 09: The arithmetic behind power minister Piyush Goyal's offer to the Australian LNG producers is based on the yawning gap between supply and demand for LNG that is likely to keep prices down for several years.
 
8Demand-supply projection data carried here by this website shows that 132 MMTPA of additional LNG capacity is now under construction.
 
8By the first quarter of 2016, it is estimated that new capacity equal to 45% of existing capacity will come on stream.
 
8What is more, a massive 855 MMTPA of capacity is under planning.
 
8This planned capacity is as much as 12 times the projected demand by the year 2025.
 
8Clearly, there is a massive oversupply in the LNG market right up to the foreseeable future.
 
8There is no doubt it is a buyers market, where suppliers will have to depend on the spot market in the absence of long term contracts.
 
8The data also shows that LNG capacity will be way above contracted quantities for the next five years, even when planned capacity expansions are not taken into account.
 
8Clearly LNG suppliers are a cornered lot today and they are forced to look at new markets and business models.
 
8And Goyal knew this fact when he made the offer to the Australians to enter into long term contracts for LNG supply, provided the price is right.
 Click on Reports for more
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-IV: Suppliers will perhaps be happy if variable costs are covered
Feb 09: How exactly the Australians are going to handle the Indian power minister's offer remains to be seen.
 
8The current LNG price is so low that it does not cover the LNG infrastructure cost, leave along the upstream cost for greenfield Australian projects.
 
8Brownfield projects in Australia have a lower cost structure, but upstream costs contribute a higher percentage of total cost compared to greenfield projects.
 
8It is turning out to be a grim game for Australian suppliers as LNG prices are nowhere near breakeven cost for them.
 
8In fact the data carried here shows that greenfield Australian LNG is among the highest cost LNG in the world, and their costs are significantly higher than the LNG coming out of West Africa, US and Canada.
 
8So will there be any takers for Goyal's offer to LNG suppliers to build power plants in India to produce electricity at 5 cents/Kwh?
 
8The answer can, surprisingly, be a "yes", perhaps not at 5 cents/kwh but at a price that can well be lower than the breakeven price.
 
8This is because of the simple fact that if there are positive cash flows, and when the variable cost is covered and fixed costs are partially paid for, it will always be more profitable for an LNG supplier to carry on supplying rather than shutting down his terminal.
 
8It will be near impossible however for India to strike a long term deal at a price that does not ensure break-even for suppliers in Australia.
 
8Eventually of course it will be up to the India-Australia Sub-Group to figure out what could be a viable way forward.
 Click on Reports for more
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-V: Will suppliers agree to lower the price slope?
Feb 09: Will Australian suppliers be willing to enter into the kind of deal that Exxon-Mobil got into with Petronet LNG Ltd (for 1.44 MMTPA of LNG) for its Gorgon LNG project in Australia?
 
8LIke with PLL's deal with  Qatar, this one too is purely linked to the Japanese Custom-cleared Crude (JCC) price.
 
8But the price is a straight forward linear relationship with the JCC price without a floor and a ceiling.
 
8This of course pushed the potential price of Gorgon cargoes sky high when the price of crude was higher.
 
8But now that crude prices have gone down, the formula will allow for a competitive price.
 
8What is more, just like with Qatar, the FOB price builds in the liquefaction cost.
 
8The only element that is going to be expensive is the shipping cost from Australia which is more than twice the cost from Qatar to India.
 
8This may make the Gorgon price around $0.50-$1/mmbtu higher than the Qatari price.
 
8Is it possible for India and Australia to improve on the PLL price for Gorgon LNG by lowering the slope a little?
 
8Clearly the slope is already very low and at current crude prices it will be difficult for LNG projects in Australia to breakeven.
 
8But then these are difficult times and nothing can be ruled out
 Click on Details for more 
  Details
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-VI: Qatar can sabotage the competition
Feb 09: LNG suppliers across the would are watching out for how Qatar will react to anyone who wants offer low price LNG to Asian markets, particularly to India, where Qatar has a supply monopoly.
 
8The fact that Qatar was able to set a price low enough while negotiating a fresh deal with Petronet LNG Ltd to keep GAIL's LNG cargoes from the US out of the Indian market is evident of the fact that the Qatar can play hard ball to keep other competitors out.
 
8The big advantage that Qatar has is the low freight cost to India.
 
8The other plus point is that Qatar's cost of production or its breakeven point is significantly lower than that of greenfield players in Australia and other countries.
 
8So it can easily take a price cut to keep competition at bay.
 
8The only problem however will be whether Qatar or for that matter other West Asian countries will be able to build enough low cost capacity to satisfy what will be an inexhaustible Indian appetite for LNG.
 
8Qatar will quite surely be able to protect its market share in India as there are no immediate threats to its monopoly.
 
8But it can spoil the game for the other suppliers by keeping its price just below their breakeven levels.
 Click on Reports for more 
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-VII: Will domestic operators be left high and dry?
Feb 09: Amidst all the jostling for a slice of the Indian LNG market, the point to ponder is what is in store for the deepwater gas producers in India.
 
8Given that the LNG market is likely to be in an over-supply mode until 2020 or even further, the landed price of LNG in India will continue to be under downward pressure.
 
8There is now open talk of  more and more producers making distress sales of their LNG cargoes. Suppliers may be willing to offload LNG if their variable costs are covered, with something left over to cover their fixed cost, which in any case is a sunk cost for them.
 
8Assuming that gas prices are freed and made market driven, it can easily be assumed that the landed price of LNG will be the ceiling price at which domestic producers can sell in India.
 
8So the moot point is whether ONGC or RIL-BP or GSPC will reach breakeven levels at the landed cost of LNG.
 
8If Piyush Goyal is pushing LNG suppliers in Australia to build power projects in India but with the caveat the the cost of power should only be 5 cents/kwh, is it possible for domestic producers to break even at these prices?
 
8The answer is certainly a "no".
 
8Domestic producers will have to fend off not just price competition from LNG suppliers but also fight pitched battles with regulators before they get to a point when they can actually produce gas.
 
8Local E&P operators will have to coax and cajole the government to put together other complementary measures in place to be able to get their deepwater discoveries into the development mode. 
 
8Unless the Production Sharing Regime (PSC) is modified to take into account delays in the implementation of development plans on account of the challenges faced in making such projects viable, local operators will not be able to go ahead.
 
8Will the government be accommodative enough?
 
8That is something only time will tell.
 Click on Reports for more
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-VII: Will domestic operators be left high and dry?
Feb 09: Amidst all the jostling for a slice of the Indian LNG market, the point to ponder is what is in store for the deepwater gas producers in India.
 
8Given that the LNG market is likely to be in an over-supply mode until 2020 or even further, the landed price of LNG in India will continue to be under downward pressure.
 
8There is now open talk of  more and more producers making distress sales of their LNG cargoes. Suppliers may be willing to offload LNG if their variable costs are covered, with something left over to cover their fixed cost, which in any case is a sunk cost for them.
 
8Assuming that gas prices are freed and made market driven, it can easily be assumed that the landed price of LNG will be the ceiling price at which domestic producers can sell in India.
 
8So the moot point is whether ONGC or RIL-BP or GSPC will reach breakeven levels at the landed cost of LNG.
 
8If Piyush Goyal is pushing LNG suppliers in Australia to build power projects in India but with the caveat the the cost of power should only be 5 cents/kwh, is it possible for domestic producers to break even at these prices?
 
8The answer is certainly a "no".
 
8Domestic producers will have to fend off not just price competition from LNG suppliers but also fight pitched battles with regulators before they get to a point when they can actually produce gas.
 
8Local E&P operators will have to coax and cajole the government to put together other complementary measures in place to be able to get their deepwater discoveries into the development mode. 
 
8Unless the Production Sharing Regime (PSC) is modified to take into account delays in the implementation of development plans on account of the challenges faced in making such projects viable, local operators will not be able to go ahead.
 
8Will the government be accommodative enough?
 
8That is something only time will tell.
 Click on Reports for more 
Piyush Goyal wants Australian LNG suppliers to build power plants in India-IX: If the power minister can set the ball rolling, so can the fertilizer minister
Feb 09: If Australian LNG producers can be invited to set up power plants in India, then it is quite possible for them to be invited to set up fertilizer plants in India as well.
 
8If the hunt is for new sources of demand for LNG, than the Indian fertilizer sector is as good as any for Australian suppliers to hone in on.
 
8Each standard sized fertilizer units needs 2.4 mmscmd of gas, and if a string of them are set up, it will tantamount to a significant demand source.
 
8If the offer is to set up power plants that can supply electricity at $5/kwh, then the Indian government can prescribe a price cap below which Australian suppliers can supply urea into the Indian market.
 
8If the power minister set the ball rolling, so can the fertilizer minister.
 
8It is time for the DOF to look at the idea carefully and perhaps mount a delegation to Australia to push for investments in India.
 Click on Reports for more.
Download Reports
Feb 08: The website carries here the following reports:
 
8Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin [Himachal Pradesh]   
 
8Saudi Arabia's fertilizer industry foray: An analysis  
 
8Argus FMB Technical Fertilizer Conference and Exhibition [2016]  
 
8Agrometeorological Advisory Bulletin [Karnataka]  
 
8Perennial Biomass Crops for a resource constrained world: A report   
 
8Flexibilising global agri-biomass value chains: A report
 Click on Reports for more
 Also see our Newsclips and Tenders sections for more information

Feb 08: Download Reports  Details
Feb 08: Rs 60 crore greenfield SSP unit: Completion by end 2017  Details
Feb 05: Download Reports  Details
Feb 05: GSPL accuses GAIL of arm twisting-II: GAIL trying to sell bundled gas to Kribhco at its expense, says GSPL  Details
Feb 05: GSPL accuses GAIL of arm twisting-I: Claims GAIL misrepresented facts about zero extra capacity in HVJ-DVPL network  Details
Feb 05: GSPL accuses GAIL of arm twisting-III: GAIL contradicts itself  Details
 
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